{"id":1304,"date":"2017-11-29T08:59:49","date_gmt":"2017-11-29T15:59:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/?p=1304"},"modified":"2017-11-29T08:59:49","modified_gmt":"2017-11-29T15:59:49","slug":"too-cold-to-snow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/history\/too-cold-to-snow\/","title":{"rendered":"Too Cold to Snow? Folklore Says, &#8220;Yes!&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Long before there were weather satellites and mathematical models of the atmosphere, people who worked and lived outdoors tried to predict future weather. Their attempts at forecasting were driven by the need to manage farms for productive yields and to travel safely. They were keen observers of the natural world, believing they had discovered causal relationships among what they saw in the sky, plant characteristics, animal behavior, and what the weather would be. Notable coincidences were given status approaching that of physical law, and contradictory observations were ignored. With a discovery process limited by a lack of scientific theory and instruments, predictions were often not accurate.<\/p>\n<p>True or not, beliefs about weather persisted, becoming embedded in the culture\u2019s folklore. Some of these beliefs are still in use today, enduring in the media and conversation without validation, or even serious skepticism.<\/p>\n<p>People use weather forecasts on two time scales to plan their activities: What the weather will be over the next few days, and what it will be for the next season. This article discusses three beliefs from folklore that were used to predict winter weather on both time scales.<\/p>\n<h2>The Old Saying Goes&#8230;<\/h2>\n<p>Some forecast rules were expressed in rhyming proverbs to aid recall. One folklore saying, believed to predict weather for the next few days is, &#8220;Ring around the moon means rain or snow soon.\u201d There is some truth to this one. The ring results from moonlight passing through tiny ice crystals in cirrostratus clouds that form at altitudes above 23,000 feet. If the ice crystals are there, sometimes one can see the ring when the clouds are not visible. Cirrostratus clouds can precede low-pressure weather systems by a day or two, and these systems can bring snow\u2014but precipitation is not certain.<\/p>\n<h2>A Woolly Winter<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1305\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1305\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar.jpg\" data-lbwps-width=\"1920\" data-lbwps-height=\"1251\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar-300x195.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1305\" src=\"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar-300x195.jpg\" alt=\"Banded Woolly Caterpillar\" width=\"300\" height=\"195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar-768x500.jpg 768w, https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar-1024x667.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/banded-woollybear-caterpillar.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1305\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Banded Woolly Caterpillar by Mohammed El Damir, Bugwood.org<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Another observation thought to predict weather on the seasonal scale is the coloration of woolly bear caterpillars. The woolly bear has black \u201cfur\u201d bands on both ends of its body, and a band of brown fur in the middle. Folklore says that when the brown band is smaller, the coming winter will be snowier and colder. One study, performed in 1948 by the curator of entomology at the American Museum of Natural History, appeared to confirm this belief, predicting the severity of the following winter correctly. Not surprisingly, he could not repeat his success consistently over the next few years. Current science has shown that the length of the brown band depends on the caterpillar\u2019s species, age, and the number of times it sheds its skin as it grows. In years with an early transition from winter to spring, woolly bears have more time to feed and grow, giving them longer brown bands by the time fall arrives. Therefore, the width of brown fur is a result of the current-season\u2019s weather, but does not predict the next season\u2019s weather.<\/p>\n<h2>Never Too Cold<\/h2>\n<p>Have you heard people say that it is too cold to snow? Is it correct? In a word, no. Snowfall has been recorded in Antarctica at -70\u00b0 Fahrenheit, and temperatures in Boulder County rarely fall below -20\u00b0 F. It is true that snowfall amounts are usually lower when temperature falls toward and below zero. The reduction in the amount of snow happens because the capacity of air to hold water vapor decreases with temperature, so when there is less water vapor, less snow falls.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s forecasters using scientific methods know their results are not 100 percent accurate. Even so, we find their predictions useful for planning our outdoor activities. It is easy to go to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/\">NOAA Climate Prediction Center<\/a>\u00a0in the fall to see the seasonal climatic forecast for the next winter. But it is much more fun to go to your favorite open space trail to look for woolly bears.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long before there were weather satellites and mathematical models of the atmosphere, people who worked and lived outdoors tried to predict future weather. Their attempts at forecasting were driven by the need to manage farms for productive yields and to travel safely. They were keen observers of the natural world, believing they had discovered causal [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[43],"class_list":["post-1304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-history","tag-winter-2017"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Too Cold to Snow? 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As the days become shorter and the weather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Science","link":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/category\/science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"snake","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/snake.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/snake.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/snake.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/snake.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/snake.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/snake.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":224,"url":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/science\/look-up-in-the-sky\/","url_meta":{"origin":1304,"position":3},"title":"Look, Up in the Sky &#8211; It&#8217;s a Cloud!","author":"Staff","date":"11\/21\/2013","format":false,"excerpt":"One of the reasons my wife and I moved to Boulder was for the 300 days of sunshine each year. In the Midwest where we lived, that is unheard of. It is not unusual to go for two weeks straight under a blanket of grey stratus clouds, covering the sky\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Science","link":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/category\/science\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Clouds over Hall Ranch","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Clouds-over-Hall-Ranch.JPG.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Clouds-over-Hall-Ranch.JPG.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Clouds-over-Hall-Ranch.JPG.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Clouds-over-Hall-Ranch.JPG.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Clouds-over-Hall-Ranch.JPG.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/Clouds-over-Hall-Ranch.JPG.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":51,"url":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/agriculture\/weathering-the-weather\/","url_meta":{"origin":1304,"position":4},"title":"Weathering the Weather","author":"Staff","date":"07\/16\/2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The West was settled under a boom and bust mentality, and despite best efforts to stabilize water supplies, farmers and ranchers throughout the state must still contend with boom years where water is plentiful and bust years when it is not. Add to this a very complicated system of water\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Agriculture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Agriculture","link":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/category\/agriculture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Wheat Field","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/wheat-field.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/wheat-field.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/wheat-field.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/wheat-field.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/wheat-field.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/wheat-field.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":783,"url":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/park-visitors\/cold-weather-tracking\/","url_meta":{"origin":1304,"position":5},"title":"Cold Weather Sleuth: Tracking in Winter","author":"Staff","date":"11\/24\/2015","format":false,"excerpt":"As you trek through the parks of Boulder County this winter, be sure to look for signs of life in addition to the snowshoers, skiers, snowboarders, and canines exploring the plains, foothills, and mountains of the Front Range. Here\u2019s a little background on animal tracking and helpful tips to use\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Park Visitors&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Park Visitors","link":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/category\/park-visitors\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Pine tree covered in snow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/winter-pine-tree.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/winter-pine-tree.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/winter-pine-tree.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/winter-pine-tree.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/winter-pine-tree.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/winter-pine-tree.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1304"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1307,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions\/1307"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bouldercountyopenspace.org\/i\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}